Market Prospects for AUVs
By Paul Newman, Rod Westwood and John Westwood 50 years have elapsed since the early work in the middle Un-tethered autonomous underwater vehicles have the of the last century. Recent developments in IT and power potential to change the game in many areas of underwa- systems, together with many years accumulated experiter operations. Long an area of research, AUVs are begin- ence of tethered ROVs have had transformational impact. ning to show their abilities as cost-effective tools in appliBut most importantly the market drivers have changed. cations ranging from deepwater survey for the offshore oil The focus of the world's major naval powers and their & gas industry to military operations. The growing need contractors has moved from cold war submarine cat and for many facets of ocean observation also offers great mouse games in 'blue water' to the littoral waters of local potential for AUVs not only to enhance the performance conflicts and the major business opportunities presented of conventional ship-based operations, but also to operate by the 'war on terror'. In the civil sector, depletion of shalin difficult-to-access areas such as below the arctic ice. low-water offshore oil & gas reserves of the North Sea and AUVs are autonomous; they are true pre-programmed the Gulf of Mexico has forced the oil & gas companies to adaptive robots, not remote controlled vehicles (ROVs). move into deep waters and into seeking new enabling They offer advantages such as the ability to act as plat- technologies. forms that can deploy survey sensors close to the seabed, Amongst the research community the need to underthereby obtaining high stand the role of the oceans quality results free from sur- AUV Market Prospects in the equation of climate face and ship noise. Also change has universal they are unconstrained by acknowledgement. And the need to be connected to then of course there is the a ship-borne power supply bottom line -- a massive and the control of an operagrowth in demand has not tor. Results of a new study only increased ship costs 'The AUV Gamechanger dramatically but also those Report 2008-2017' pubof the essential underwater lished by Douglasoperations personnel. Westwood Limited detail Technological capability the market. Over 400 true and market need are now AUVs have been built plus building on each other to others which have self-con- AUV Market Prospects (Most Likely Scenario - Units by Size) drive demand. AUVs are Source: 'The AUV Gamechanger Report 2008-2017' tained power supplies but not an answer to all underalso an ability to operate in water operations needs, but an AUV mode or as an ROV via a thin fibre optic tether. for some applications they offer great increases in cost The vehicles range in size from 25 kg units, designed to effectiveness and true 'force multiplication' for the milioperate in down to 50m water depth to ones weighing tary and financial leverage for all sectors. In the AUV several tons, designed to be 'launched' from the ICBM Gamechanger Report Douglas-Westwood's aim has been tubes of nuclear submarines. Unit costs vary accordingly, to consider the prospects for this truly game-changing from less that $50,000 to instances of perhaps $100 mil- technology and value the future markets for AUV manulion plus lavished by the military on a development pro- facturers to 2017. gram. However, a typical small AUV for mine countermeasures work might cost $600,000 and a civil deepwater The Market survey AUV perhaps $5 million. The process we have used in modeling future demand In common with many other areas of technology the for AUVs over the decade 2008 to 2017 begins by deterdevelopment of AUVs from research concept to commer- mining historic deliveries of vehicles to users then considcial product has taken many years, but in this case around ers the likely development of the key drivers of demand.
22 MTR
October 2007
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